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On the occasion of Earth Day, it is worth reflecting on climate change and the ongoing energy transition. It has been 28 years since the Kyoto Protocol (1997), and climate change has since become the foremost environmental emergency.

According to JP Morgan’s annual energy report, over the past decade alone, a staggering 9 trillion dollars have been invested globally in wind and solar energy, electric vehicles, energy storage, and power grids.

Yet, despite these massive investments, the share of renewables in final energy consumption has increased by only 0.3% to 0.6% per year.

Looking at the data, we find ourselves in yet another year (2023) where, although installed solar and wind capacity continues to grow and green investments surpass fossil fuel ones, CO₂ emissions still rise sharply – reaching 37.79 billion tons – while fossil fuels still account for 81% of total energy consumption, just as they did 40 years ago. What’s even more concerning is the absolute growth of fossil fuel use.

We should also question how many of these emissions come from the green industry itself. In China, for instance, steel and cement production is decreasing, but coal consumption continues to rise. China controls the global market for photovoltaic, wind, and battery production – a topic we’ve explored in our journal L’Astrolabio.

As for Italy, during our XVI National Conference on Energy Efficiency, we analysed several indicators to assess progress towards the 2030 targets set in the National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC). For example, at the current pace, it would take 2,400 years to reach the 27% target for electrification, or 55 years to reduce the share of fossil fuels in the energy mix to 61% (currently around 80%). These numbers clearly illustrate the ineffectiveness of current policies, which have heavily relied on intermittent renewables like wind and solar. It is now evident that these technologies are not only failing to replace fossil fuels, but are also unable to meet growing energy demands. In fact, in 2023, global primary energy consumption rose by 2% compared to the previous year. While renewables did grow, their contribution increased by only 0.4%; the remaining 1.6% was met by fossil fuels. Meanwhile, energy bills for households and businesses continue to rise, largely due to subsidies for renewable sources – yet their overall impact remains marginal

We must have the courage to admit that this is not the right path to cut emissions. While emissions are decreasing in advanced economies, they are rising in developing countries. Europe now contributes only 7% of global emissions, and Italy just 0.7%. To effectively reduce global emissions, we must stop wasting resources on inefficient and costly renewable energy in Europe, and instead redirect investments toward the Global South—where access to energy is essential for achieving basic standards of well-being.