Two scientific studies debunk false myths: replacing palm oil increases environmental impact.

One of the most discussed topics in the debate on the relationship between food and the environment concerns the impact of vegetable oils. In particular, palm oil continues to be the subject of unfounded criticism, often accused of being among the leading causes of tropical deforestation. But what would happen if we eliminated it?

A recent study by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) states that all vegetable oils, including palm oil, are necessary, raising a central issue: how can we reconcile the growing demand for vegetable oils with the need to protect forests, biodiversity, and the climate? The report highlights the paradoxes of the global agri-food system, showing how palm oil, if produced responsibly, can be part of the solution, not the problem.

The paradox of the contemporary agri-food system is evident: today, enough food is produced to feed 10 billion people, compared to a global population of about 8 billion. Yet, one-third of food is wasted along the entire supply chain, and distribution remains highly unequal: 815 million people suffer from hunger, while over 2.1 billion are obese or overweight.

Added to this is the environmental impact: overall, the agri-food system is responsible for 23–42% of global greenhouse gas emissions, increasing from 14 to 17 GtCO₂ per year between 1990 and 2018. The result? A highly inefficient system that is harmful to the climate.

Global production of vegetable oils exceeds 200 million tons per year. Palm oil and palm kernel oil account for over 40% of the total, followed by soybean oil (28%), rapeseed (12%), and sunflower (9%). Though central to the Mediterranean diet, olive oil accounts for only 2%.

According to the EAT-Lancet Commission, a balanced and sustainable diet should include about 40 grams per day of unsaturated oils, of which palm oil provides 6.8.

With the global population set to reach 9.8 billion by 2050, the demand for vegetable oils will increase by 67%. Therefore, it becomes essential to understand and carefully assess the environmental consequences of our choices, avoiding the mistakes of the past. For example, some companies, faced with the palm oil debate, decided to replace it with alternatives like soy, rapeseed, or sunflower without considering the certified sustainable option. In this context, the study by the Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), “Pressure on Global Forests: Implications of Rising Vegetable Oils Consumption Under the EAT-Lancet Diet,” published in Global Change Biology, modeled four scenarios for replacing palm oil (0%, 25%, 50%, 100%).

The result is clear: the greater the replacement of palm oil, the greater the forest loss and climate-altering emissions. A total replacement would require up to 148 million hectares of new crops and generate up to 1.5 Gt of CO₂eq annually.

This is because palm oil yields up to 3.4 t/ha, higher than crops like soy, rapeseed, or sunflower (0.3–0.7 t/ha). Giving it up, therefore, means using much more agricultural land, increasing pressure on ecosystems.

TOWARDS AN INTEGRATED AND SUSTAINABLE STRATEGY